China’s development is inextricably linked with the world, and the future of China’s economy is closely intertwined with that of the global economy. In recent years, the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation has been gathering momentum, with new trends emerging. The new technological and industrial revolution, characterized by intelligence, greenness, and digitalization, has had a profound impact on the world economy and has also provided significant opportunities for China’s high-quality development. China enjoys the systemic advantages of a socialist market economy and the institutional strengths of socialism with Chinese characteristics in concentrating efforts on major tasks. Therefore, we have every reason to be confident about China’s economic development in the next five years. Several key points are worth grasping regarding China’s economic development in the “15th Five-Year” period.
Ensuring Decisive Progress in Basically Achieving Socialist Modernization. The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China set the goal of basically achieving socialist modernization by 2035. With only a decade left to realize this goal, the development in the next five years is of paramount importance. After comprehensive consideration, setting the expected average annual growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at around 5% for the next five years appears appropriate. Additionally, taking into account the need for a reasonable rebound in the overall price level, a nominal growth rate of around 7% seems more suitable. This will send a clear signal of policy determination to the market, which is conducive to boosting business investment confidence and shaping residents’ consumption expectations, thereby laying a solid foundation for the realization of the 2035 target.
Persisting in Implementing More Active and Effective Macroeconomic Policies. The macroeconomic environment China will face in the next five years remains challenging, with issues such as insufficient domestic demand and a low-inflation environment requiring close attention. In light of this situation, the direction of macroeconomic policy during the “15th Five-Year” period will continue to focus on strengthening counter-cyclical regulation and implementing more active and effective macroeconomic policies.
Placing Greater Strategic Emphasis on Developing New-Form Productivity in Accordance with Local Conditions. This will be the top priority for the construction of a modern industrial system in the next five years. The direction of industrial development during the “15th Five-Year” period is to promote an integrated development model encompassing “industry, science and technology, and talent.” Efforts will be concentrated on addressing weaknesses, strengthening weak links, and enhancing advantages in these three areas. If existing industries lack certain technologies or talents, they will be supplemented accordingly. The technological advantages of emerging industries will be leveraged to support the main technological focus and industrial layout of future industries.
Promoting Deep-Level Reforms. The focus will be on adhering to and implementing the “two unwavering principles,” deepening the reform of state-owned enterprises, and stimulating corporate vitality and innovation. The “Private Economy Promotion Law” should be effectively implemented to protect the enthusiasm of private enterprises for development and stabilize market expectations. Accelerating the construction of a unified national market, breaking down local protectionism and market segmentation, eliminating administrative monopolies, and optimizing the business environment will be key priorities. Deepening the reform of the administrative examination and approval system to minimize government intervention in micro affairs and better combining an effective market with an active government is essential. Advancing fiscal and tax system reform to establish a fiscal and tax system conducive to market unification will also be a focus.