Embracing the Opportunities & Challenges of an Aging Population from Multiple Angles
By Ba Shusong, Vice President of the China Association of Gerontology and Geriatrics
Looking at population aging from a global perspective, we see that it is deepening worldwide, a consequence of economic development and a significant trend in social evolution. However, there is also a differentiation in age structures globally. The distribution of these structures provides a crucial opportunity for reshaping the global industrial landscape, including supply chains, industry chains, and production chains, which must be strategically planned and optimized in light of the new demographic realities.
In line with this, China's economic development has shifted from rapid growth to a focus on high-quality growth. Influenced by trends such as an aging population, the return on domestic financial assets is expected to decline gradually. This shift necessitates the consideration of global resource allocation. Currently, China's overseas resource allocation is minimal, indicating a substantial potential for international asset distribution. The wealth accumulated by Chinese residents during the high-growth phase must continue to yield satisfactory returns as the country enters the aging phase. This is essential for both the elderly to enjoy a secure and fulfilling later life and for the survival of financial institutions.
Examining population aging through the lens of industrial development structure, we compare economic growth performances across different countries' demographic profiles and various stages of China's economic progression. A key consideration is leveraging the demographic structure to transition from a demographic dividend to a dividend based on human capital quality, a question of profound and lasting significance.
When considering the development stage, industrial structure, primary sources of growth momentum, and the global advancement of technology, a youthful population is not a mandatory condition for high growth. The development trajectories of China and the world have demonstrated this, particularly in the era of artificial intelligence and high-end service industries. Enhancing educational access and encouraging continuous, proactive learning will become increasingly vital. As China progressively enters the aging phase, there is potential to stimulate creativity through a dynamic economic system and to harness the contributions of well-educated older individuals to society.
From the perspective of the silver economy, there is a significant demand. China's second baby boom, from the early 1960s to mid-1970s, resulted in approximately 300 million births. As this cohort moves into old age, armed with extensive experience, good health, longer life expectancies, and greater wealth, China is poised to welcome an enormous consumer base with substantial untapped potential. The needs of this demographic are diverse, yet economic research in this area remains nascent and requires further exploration.
Considering the silver economy's impact within the broader economic framework, how can we assist younger generations in establishing a safety net and enhance the overall societal stability? This is indeed one of the many research topics that an aging society must address. Discussions and research should not be limited to the aging aspect of society but should extend to this and related areas. Observing the economic implications of an aging population from the vantage points of a global outlook, industrial development stages, and the silver economy, we will encounter new characteristics, challenges, and certainly opportunities.
Published on May 9, 2024